■ Keynote Speaker 1
Key laboratory of pressure systems and safety (MOE),East China University of Science and Technology,
Title:How can we better improve the reliability and safety of our products? ——A Plea for a new manufacturing paradigm
Abstract: In view of the deficiency of current manufacturing modes, the lecture intends to introduce a new manufacturing paradigm: reliability centered manufacturing (RcM). To achieve a higher reliability and safety of the next generation of products, damage identification techniques is developed which is supported by a big failure databank. High reliability is then secured by development of high performance materials, design against failures, zero-defect manufacture and re-manufacturing for reliability recovery. The reliability centered manufacturing are supported by advanced testing, inspection, and on-line monitoring technology, and various surface engineering techniques for materials performance enhancement. Supply chain management to ensure high reliability will be addressed.
The lecture will demonstrate the manufacturing process learning from the failures and evolving with new knowledge. You will find RcM is an iterative solution for a new generation of product of high reliability, an inclusive model entails digital, green, smart and various manufacturing modes. RcM is a Knowledge based evolution process, a lifelong improvement strategy, and sharing ad win-win cooperation. There is a plenty room of development in the general framework of RcM.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Shan-Tung Tu received his B.Eng degree in 1982 and Ph.D degree in 1988 from Nanjing Tech University. He is a Chair professor of Mechanical and Chemical Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology and an honorary professor of engineering, the University of Nottingham. Prior to this, he has worked in Nanjing Tech University and East China University of Science and Technology as a professor and vice present, and a guest scientist to Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
Driven by the safety concern of the process and energy equipment, Professor Tu has been trying to develop knowledge in the area of high temperature structural integrity and engineering, including creep, fatigue fracture, structural integrity monitoring and design of high temperature equipment. He is an author of more than 350 papers and received a number of distinguished awards, including China National Science and Technology Progress Award, National Technology Invention Award, China Youth Science and Technology Award, ASME Best Paper Award and so on. He has been the honorary president of Chinese Pressure Vessel Institution (since 2010) and the honorary president of Chinese Materials Institution (since 2015) of China Mechanical Engineering Society, Chairman of China Structural Integrity Consortium, Chairman of Asian Oceanic Regional Committee of International Council for Pressure Vessel Technology, a member of reliability committee of IFToMM. He is also serving a number of journals as an associate editor or editorial board member, including Int J Pres Ves and Piping, Applied Energy, J of Materials Science and Technology, Fatigue and Fracture of Engineering Materials and Structures and so on
■ Keynote Speaker 2
Title:New technology and safe service of aviation system
Abstract: High safety is the key requirement of aircraft design specification. In order to obtain the high reliability and safety, aviation systems, such as avionics system, flight control system and utility systems, adopt many new technologies. This address introduces high reliability design methods, more electrical technologies, prognostics and health management (PHM) and energy management systems. Based on above technologies, the onboard aviation system becomes typical cyber-physical system. This address provides the life-cycle reliability evaluation considering the fault tolerant strategy, communication, health condition and monitoring. The dynamic hierarchical reliability model considering the monitoring rate, alarm rate and fault tolerant performance and the maintenance supportability are included.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Shaoping Wang is “Cheung Kong Scholar” Chair professor of Beihang University. She is also the winner of China Youth Science and Technology Award, winner of Education Ministry New Century Excellent Talents Support Plan, Excellent talents of Ministry of Industry and Information, winner of Excellent Female Medal of Beijing and Beijing Innovative Star. She got PhD degree, Master degree and Bachelor degree in 1994, 1991 and 1988 respectively. Her research interests are in the area of fault diagnosis and health management, reliability and fault tolerant control, fluid power transmission and control, mechatronic control and simulation, design and optimization of mechatronic system, and product life-cycle management. She is the associate chair of Reliability Branch of China Operational Research Society, Fluid Power Transmission and Control Branch of China Aeronautics Society. She is the associate chief editor of Journal of Aeronautics and Beihang University Journal. She published 5 books, around 300 papers include more than 100 SCI indexed papers, 150 EI indexed paper, 32 Granted patents. She gains National Second Prize for innovation, National Second Prize of the Scientific and technological Progress and 16 Ministerial Awards for Scientific and Technological Progress. She also got the national Second Prize on Education and 3 Beijing Prize on Education.
■ Keynote Speaker 3
Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University,
Title:City–scale nonlinear time–history analysis: methodology and engineering application
Abstract: Earthquakes can cause severe damage and huge economic loss to modern cities. Rational seismic damage simulations of buildings can provide an essential reference for city planning and post-earthquake rescue work. A new urban earthquake disaster simulation method, i.e., city–scale nonlinear time–history analysis (THA), is performed in this work. The key scientific outcomes achieved are addressed below. (1) A physics-based multi–scale modeling method for urban buildings is proposed to rationally consider the various deformation characteristics and data resolutions of buildings. (2) The CPU/GPU collaborative parallel computing method is employed to address the excessive computational workload from city–scale simulations. (3) A novel numerical coupling scheme is proposed to scientifically investigate the interactions among densely distributed buildings and the site. (4) The 3D urban polygon model and oblique aerial photography are adopted to realize the high–fidelity visualization of seismic scenarios. (5) The refined regional seismic loss prediction can be achieved based on the city–scale nonlinear THA and FEMA P-58. Besides, the secondary disaster scenario can also be simulated through coupling the city–scale nonlinear THA and physics-based models for other hazards, such as the falling debris and fire following earthquake.
The proposed disaster simulation method has been successfully applied to the seismic damage prediction of several cities, such as San Francisco Bay Area, Beijing and Tangshan. Combined with the real–time recorded ground motions, the proposed method has also been successfully used for the prompt assessment of seismic damage in 32 domestic and 42 international earthquakes. In summary, the city–scale nonlinear THA takes accurate consideration of the characteristics of ground motions and those of buildings, and the analysis outcomes will provide an important reference for city planning, post-earthquake rescue work, seismic damage assessment, and earthquake scenario simulation.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Xinzheng Lu is a full Professor and the Head of the Institute of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. He is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Engineering Mechanics journal of CSTAM, and the associate Editor of Journal of Structural Engineering-ASCE.
Prof. Lu’s major research interests cover disaster prevention and mitigation of structures and cities. He was listed as the “Most Cited Chinese Scholars in Civil and Structural field” by Elsevier (from 2014 to 2019). The models and methods he proposed have been adopted by ACI guidelines, Chinese national and industrial design codes, and integrated into some important simulation platforms, such as OpenSees, US-NSF NHERI SimCenter, and China Earthquake Networks Center. He has participated in the design of some landmark buildings and the planning of important city areas, such as the tallest building in Beijing (CITIC Tower, 528 m). He also participated in the emergency earthquake reconnaissance after Wenchuan (2008), Yushu (2010), Lushan (2013), etc
■ Keynote Speaker 4
PLA rocket force engineering university,
Title:Reliable Control Technology of Equipment Life Cycle
Abstract: Reliability design, reliability analysis and reliability experiment, fault-tolerant control, fault diagnosis, fault prognosis, residual useful life prediction, predictive maintenance and health management, all of these reliable control technology are discussed systematically in this report.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Chang-Hua Hu is a professor of The PLA rocket force engineering university. He has gained the National science foundation for outstanding Young people of china. He is a Chang Jiang Scholars of the ministry of education of the people’s republic of china, and he is a national famous teacher of china. He has published more than 300 papers. His main research interest focuses on the fault diagnosis, fault prognosis, residual useful life prediction, predictive maintenance and health management.
■ Keynote Speaker 5
School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology,
Title:On Reliability for Balanced Systems
Abstract: The reliability of balanced systems (or symmetry systems, I prefer the former) have been studied in reliability field recently, and their special features and applications in real world make them more interesting. In this talk, a history of the reliability of balanced systems is reviewed, and the some important assumptions are given firstly. Then the features of these models on reliability are discussed, the reliability and other measures are considered as well. Finally some discussions on future researches on this direction are presented.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Lirong Cui is a professor in the School of Management & Economics at Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT). He received a BS degree from Tiangong University in 1983, a MS degree from the System Science Institute of China Science Academy in 1986, and a PhD degree in Probability and Statistics from the University of Wales, UK in 1994. He has 14 years of experience working in a research institute for the Ministry of Astronautics Industry (1986-1999), two years in National University of Singapore from 2000 to 2002 and works for BIT since 2003. He also has experiences in Wales (UK) and Taiwan (China) as a visiting scholar. He is an Associate Editor for IISE Transactions, Communications in Statistics and Quality Technology & Quantitative Management, and he was also an Associate Editor for IEEE Transactions on Reliability from 2005 to 2015. Besides, he is also an Associate Director, Executive Director or Director for many academic organizations and an expert for the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Since 1999, he has over 80 published SCI journal papers and 1 English monography. He was granted the New Century Outstanding talents from the Ministry of Education, China. One of his PhD student was awarded the excellent doctoral dissertation of Beijing in 2009 and 5 PhD students were awarded the excellent doctoral dissertation of BIT. He has presided 6 programs funded by NSFC, including 5 general programs and 1 key program. His current research interests involve aggregated stochastic processes and maintenance modelling, reliability modelling and analysis of degradation systems, cascading systems and balance systems, finite Markov chain embedding approach, Hawkes process, and the optimal matching problems, etc.
■ Keynote Speaker 6
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,
Title:Multi-Level Inspection Strategy Optimzation for Complex Systems
Abstract: Condition monitoring, as a key measure to ensure the safe and reliable operations of complex engineering systems, has been widely implemented to reveal the health status and predict the future states of systems. However, due to the complex working conditions of systems and the limitation of the accuracy of condition monitoring techniques, the inspection data from the condition monitoring oftentimes cannot accurately reveal the true states of systems. On the other hand, the inspection data can be oftentimes collected from multiple physical levels of a system with a hierarchical structure, including the system level, subsystem level and component level. Besides, due to limited inspection resources, such as time, budget, and manpower, it is often impossible to collect inspection data for all components, subsystems, and the entire system simultaneously. This talk will introduce some preliminary research works on the optimal multi-level inspection strategy in the context of multi-state systems under the uncertainty of inspection data, multiple physical levels of systems and limited inspection resource.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Yu Liu is a full Professor with the Department of Industrial Engineering in the School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. He received his PhD degree in Mechatronics Engineering from the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. He was a Visiting Pre-doctoral Fellow in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Northwestern University, Evanston, U.S.A. from 2008 to 2010, and a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, at the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada from 2012 to 2013. His research interests include system reliability modeling and analysis, maintenance decisions, prognostics and health management, and design under uncertainty. He has published over 60 peer-reviewed papers in international journals, such as IEEE Transactions on Reliability, IISE Transactions, European Journal of Operational Research, ASME Journal of Mechanical Design. He has been recognized as one of the Most Cited Chinese Researchers by Elsevier since 2016. He was a recipient of the National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars and the HIWIN Doctoral Dissertation Award sponsored by HIWIN Technologies Corporation and Chinese Society of Mechanical Engineers. He serves as the Secretary General of the Reliability Committee of Operations Research Society of China and the Executive Committee Member of the System Reliability Division of Systems Engineering Society of China.
■ Keynote Speaker 7
David W. Coit
New Jersey, USA
Title:Reliability Analysis with Two-stage Degradation: Models and Forecasting
Abstract: Many degradation processes occur in two distinct stages or phases. This is not unusual or unexpected because (a) often the design includes protective coverings or coatings that beneficially delay the onset of a degradation process, (b) some physical or chemical processes naturally do not occur until there has been a time-delay of some type, or (c) after progressing gradually for some time, a degradation process may become more aggressive and fundamentally change. There have been several impressive two-stage degradation models in the literature including the gamma-gamma and Weiner-Weiner models and others. In this talk, we will introduce a new model called the Weibull-gamma model. The first stage is modeled by a time-to-event distribution, instead of a stochastic process, to more closely resemble the physical behavior of some delayed failure mechanisms, while the second stage is a stochastic process similar to other models. In the new model, both stages are modeled as a function of stress covariates, which can then be used to conduct accelerated testing. The model is demonstrated using an example of a steel rebar used in reinforced concrete to build more reliable bridges. Testing data was collected for three years under accelerated conditions to evaluate the feasibility and reliability of new steel materials exposed to stressful conditions. While the new model to useful to predict reliability, it is not particularly useful to forecast future degradation. In the final part of the talk, various machine learning forecasting methods are discussed and demonstrated.
Speaker Bio: Prof. David W. Coit is a Professor in the Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering at Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA, and he is currently appointed to a 3-year position as a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. He has been awarded several U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) grants, including a CAREER grant from NSF to develop system reliability optimization algorithms considering uncertainty. He has been the recipient of the P. K. McElroy award, Alain O. Plait award and William A. J. Golomski award for best papers and tutorials at the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS). He has over 120 published journal papers and over 90 peer-reviewed conference papers. He also has over ten years of experience working for IIT Research Institute (IITRI), Rome NY. He received a BS degree in mechanical engineering from Cornell University, an MBA from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and MS and PhD in industrial engineering from the University of Pittsburgh. He is a Department Editor for IISE Transactions and an Associate Editor for IEEE Transactions on Reliability and Journal of Risk and Reliability, and he is a member of IISE, IEEE and INFORMS.
■ Keynote Speaker 8
Leibniz Universität Hannover,
Title:Epistemic Uncertainties: Opportunity or Burden?
Abstract: Epistemic uncertainties appear across all engineering fields to quite some significant extent. Although they can often be described phenomenologically and qualitatively, they counteract a rigorous quantitative description, which is needed as a basis for a realistic risk assessment. In the presence of epistemic uncertainties the specification of a probabilistic model and the associated risk analysis lead to hypothetical results presuming some intuitive guess to capture the influence of the epistemic uncertainty. That is, we quantify risk based on conditions that represent assumptions rather than facts. Such results can be significantly misleading. It is thus of paramount importance to quantify epistemic uncertainties most realistically. This quantification should neither introduce unwarranted information nor should it neglect information. On this basis there is a clear consensus that epistemic uncertainties need to be taken into account for a realistic assessment of risk and reliability. However, there is no clearly defined procedure to master this challenge. There are rather a variety of concepts and approaches available to deal with epistemic uncertainties, from which the engineer can chose. This choice is made difficult by the perception that the available concepts are competing and opposed to one another rather than being complementary and compatible. Clearly, the first consideration should be devoted to a probabilistic modelling, naturally through subjective probabilities, which express a belief of the expert and can be integrated into a fully probabilistic framework in a coherent manner via a Bayesian approach. While this pathway is widely accepted and recognized as being very powerful, the potential of set-theoretical approaches and imprecise probabilities has only been utilized to some minor extent. Those approaches, however, attract increasing attention in cases when available information is not rich enough to meaningfully specify subjective probability distributions. The presentation will feature models for epistemic uncertainties, and it will highlight their capabilities and added value when used for engineering analysis and design. Illustrative examples are used to explain the respective features. The discussion on the models is complemented by presenting a powerful numerical technology for processing epistemic uncertainties even in very complex and nonlinear engineering analyses. This technology can be used not only for reliability analysis, but also for sensitivity analysis, design, model updating and more.
Speaker Bio: Prof. Michael Beer is Professor and Head of the Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany, since 2015. He is also part time Professor at the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool and in the Shanghai Institute of Disaster Prevention and Relief, Tongji University, China. He obtained a doctoral degree from the Technische Universität Dresden and pursued research at Rice University, supported with a Feodor-Lynen Fellowship from the Alexander von Humboldt-Foundation. From 2007 to 2011 Dr. Beer worked as an Assistant Professor at National University of Singapore. In 2011 he joined the University of Liverpool as Chair in Uncertainty in Engineering and Founding Director of the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty. In 2014 he established the EPSRC and ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Quantification and Management of Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems & Environments. Among other activities Dr. Beer is Editor in Chief (jointly) of the Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering (Springer) as well as Associate Editor of the ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems and Associate Editor of the International Journal of Reliability and Safety. Dr. Beer’s research is focused on non-traditional uncertainty models in engineering with emphasis on reliability and risk analysis.